By probable cause, are we talking about primary cause or causal factors?
If it is the latter, do we count ATC, Maintenance, design atc. as human error?
At the risk of sounding pedantic, I believe human error is a contributory
factor in 100% of aircraft accidents. This does not aim to legitimise human
error, but to remind us of the importance of work in the area.
Air traffic controllers, weather forecasters, maintenance engineers,
designers etc. are all human and therefore prone to human error.
If we are talking about primary cause then that is a different matter, but
then let me pose this question:
If an airliner has a crash in Australia (God forbid), who will determine
what contribution it has to accident statistics that are based on primary
cause? The Australian Bureau of Air Safety which investigates accidents in
Australia stopped using 'primary cause' years ago and now only uses
'Findings' and 'Significant Factors'.
Dr. Graham Braithwaite
Department of Aviation
University of New South Wales
Sydney 2052
Australia
Tel: +61 (0) 2 9385 6757
Fax: +61 (0) 2 9385 6637
Mobile: 0414 736 467